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Date: Tue, 19 Jul 94 22:09:18 PDT From: Info-Hams Mailing List and Newsgroup <info-hams@ucsd.edu> Errors-To: Info-Hams-Errors@UCSD.Edu Reply-To: Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu Precedence: Bulk Subject: Info-Hams Digest V94 #815 To: Info-Hams Info-Hams Digest Tue, 19 Jul 94 Volume 94 : Issue 815 Today's Topics: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 July Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 July Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 July Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 July Send Replies or notes for publication to: <Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu> Send subscription requests to: <Info-Hams-REQUEST@UCSD.Edu> Problems you can't solve otherwise to brian@ucsd.edu. Archives of past issues of the Info-Hams Digest are available (by FTP only) from UCSD.Edu in directory "mailarchives/info-hams". We trust that readers are intelligent enough to realize that all text herein consists of personal comments and does not represent the official policies or positions of any party. Your mileage may vary. So there. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 14 Jul 1994 01:12:32 MDT From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!galaxy.ucr.edu!library.ucla.edu!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 July To: info-hams@ucsd.edu /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 13 JULY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 JULY, 1994 -------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 194, 07/13/94 10.7 FLUX=081.4 90-AVG=080 SSN=081 BKI=0010 0111 BAI=001 BGND-XRAY=A6.1 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=2010 1122 PAI=004 BOU-DEV=004,004,006,002,004,006,008,009 DEV-AVG=005 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B4.4 @ 1719UT XRAY-MIN= A5.5 @ 1238UT XRAY-AVG= A8.9 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0715UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1905UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.4% PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 2055UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1455UT PCA-AVG= +0.1DB BOUTF-MAX=55250NT @ 1507UT BOUTF-MIN=55222NT @ 1938UT BOUTF-AVG=55241NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+097,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+149NT@ 1827UT GOES6-MIN=N:-036NT@ 0035UT G6-AVG=+126,+033,-013 FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,080;SESC:080,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/012,020,025 KFCST=3323 2332 3344 3433 27DAY-AP=006,009 27DAY-KP=3121 2212 1223 3332 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 JUL 94 was 40.1. The Full Kp Indices for 12 JUL 94 are: 1+ 1- 0o 0o 1- 2- 1o 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 12 JUL 94 are: 5 3 0 1 3 7 4 7 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence value is not available. SPECIAL NOTICE REGARDING JUPITER AND PERIODIC COMET SHOEMAKER-LEVY 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------- JUPITER - PERIODIC COMET SHOEMAKER-LEVY 9 (1993E) R. M. WEST, EUROPEAN SOUTHERN OBSERVATORY, HAS MEASURED THE NUCLEI ON CCD IMAGES OBTAINED DURING JULY 1-8 BY O. HAINAUT, R. SCHULZ, M. CAROLLO, C. ALARD AND A. CIMATTI WITH THE 3.5-M NEW TECHNOLOGY TELESCOPE AND 1.5-M DANISH TELESCOPE. REDUCTIONS WERE WITH THE HELP OF SOUTHERN SKY ATLAS PLATES AND PROVISIONAL HIPPARCOS REFERENCE-STAR POSITIONS PROVIDED BY M. PERRYMAN AND C. TURON. F. NAKANO, SUMOTO, JAPAN, HAS COMPUTED IMPROVED ORBITS AND THE FOLLOWING TIMES (CORRECTED FOR LIGHT TIME) FOR THE IMPACTS ON JUPITER: A = 21, JULY 16.826 UT; B = 20, 17.113; C = 19, 17.287; D = 18, 17.483; E = 17, 17.625; F = 16, 18.014; G = 15, 18.308; H = 14, 18.805; K = 12, 19.425; L = 11, 19.919; N = 9, 20.428; P = 8 (= P2 = 8B), 20.624; Q = 7 (= Q1 = 7A), 20.831; R = 6, 21.223; S = 5, 21.627; T = 4, 21.758; U = 3, 21.907; V = 2, 22.166; W = 1, 22.330. COMPARISON WITH COMPUTATIONS BY P. W. CHODAS AND D. K. YEOMANS, JET PROPULSION LABORATORY, SUGGESTS THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS NOW AROUND +/- 0.005 DAY FOR ALMOST ALL THESE NUCLEI, THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY BEING MAINLY BECAUSE MOST OF THE EARLIER OBSERVATIONS WERE REDUCED USING THE STSCI GUIDE STAR CATALOGUE. USING THE TIDAL-DISRUPTION MODEL OF Z. SEKANINA, CHODAS AND YEOMANS PROVIDE LESS CERTAIN IMPACT TIMES FOR LOST AND LESS WELL OBSERVED FRAGMENTS: J = 13, JULY 19.11 UT; M = 10, 20.24; P1 = 8A, 20.69; Q2 = 7B, 20.81. THEY ADD THAT A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF PARTICLES BEYOND THE EASTERN END OF THE NUCLEAR TRAIN SHOULD NOW ALREADY HAVE BEGUN TO STRIKE JUPITER. 1994 JULY 9 (6017) BRIAN G. MARSDEN CENTRAL BUREAU FOR ASTRONOMICAL TELEGRAMS INTERNATIONAL ASTRONOMICAL UNION POSTAL ADDRESS: CENTRAL BUREAU FOR ASTRONOMICAL TELEGRAMS SMITHSONIAN ASTROPHYSICAL OBSERVATORY, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138, U.S.A. TELEPHONE 617-495-7244/7440/7444 (FOR EMERGENCY USE ONLY) TWX 710-320-6842 ASTROGRAM CAM EASYLINK 62794505 MARSDEN@CFA OR GREEN@CFA (.SPAN, .BITNET OR .HARVARD.EDU) SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was at very low levels. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Event probabilities 14 jul-16 jul Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 jul-16 jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor Storm 10/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor Storm 10/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Near-normal propagation is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. High-latitude minor signal degradation may begin to be observed on 15 July in response to a recurrent disturbance. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z JULY ------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7746 N12W71 157 0090 CAO 05 006 BETA 7747 S16W65 151 0020 AXX 01 001 ALPHA 7749 S08W83 169 0020 AXX 01 001 ALPHA 7750 S16W83 169 0040 BXO 07 003 BETA 7751 S12E15 071 0020 CRO 05 007 BETA 7753 S12E39 047 0020 CRO 04 003 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 JULY TO 16 JULY NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 JULY, 1994 --------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 1647 1722 1732 7746 N12W69 B4.4 SF 220 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 JULY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 13/A0027 B1241 S11E37 DSF 13/ 2146 2157 2230 S12E18 LDE B3.0 44 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 92 N00E06 S04E01 N20W26 N24W01 097 ISO POS 012 10830A 93 N63E56 N38W02 N38W02 N70E46 061 EXT POS 026 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 12 Jul: 0547 0555 0604 B2.4 0911 0919 0926 C6.0 SF 7746 N12W52 1040 1058 1103 B1.8 1246 1250 1253 B1.7 1336 1340 1344 B1.1 1527 1530 1534 B1.0 2245 2250 2303 SF 7746 N12W61 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7746: 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (28.6) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 005 (71.4) Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 12 Jul: 0911 0919 0926 C6.0 SF 7746 N12W52 II,III,V NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Jul 1994 23:25:58 MDT From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!swrinde!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!usenet@network.ucsd.edu Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 July To: info-hams@ucsd.edu /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 14 JULY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 JULY, 1994 -------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 195, 07/14/94 10.7 FLUX=081.9 90-AVG=080 SSN=090 BKI=2234 4434 BAI=019 BGND-XRAY=A6.8 FLU1=1.5E+06 FLU10=3.9E+04 PKI=1124 5545 PAI=024 BOU-DEV=013,011,021,046,061,063,039,067 DEV-AVG=040 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C2.3 @ 2000UT XRAY-MIN= A6.0 @ 0239UT XRAY-AVG= B1.0 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 1200UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 2010UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.5% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2020UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1635UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55260NT @ 2342UT BOUTF-MIN=55212NT @ 1820UT BOUTF-AVG=55238NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+080,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+170NT@ 2008UT GOES6-MIN=N:-076NT@ 1203UT G6-AVG=+107,+034,-025 FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,080;SESC:080,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/025,025,015 KFCST=3345 4443 3345 4443 27DAY-AP=009,015 27DAY-KP=1223 3332 3443 2322 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 JUL 94 was 42.0. The Full Kp Indices for 13 JUL 94 are: 2- 0+ 1- 0+ 1- 1+ 2- 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 13 JUL 94 are: 7 2 3 2 3 5 6 6 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 14 JUL is: 3.5E+06 SPECIAL NOTICE REGARDING JUPITER AND PERIODIC COMET SHOEMAKER-LEVY 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------- JUPITER - PERIODIC COMET SHOEMAKER-LEVY 9 (1993E) R. M. WEST, EUROPEAN SOUTHERN OBSERVATORY, HAS MEASURED THE NUCLEI ON CCD IMAGES OBTAINED DURING JULY 1-8 BY O. HAINAUT, R. SCHULZ, M. CAROLLO, C. ALARD AND A. CIMATTI WITH THE 3.5-M NEW TECHNOLOGY TELESCOPE AND 1.5-M DANISH TELESCOPE. REDUCTIONS WERE WITH THE HELP OF SOUTHERN SKY ATLAS PLATES AND PROVISIONAL HIPPARCOS REFERENCE-STAR POSITIONS PROVIDED BY M. PERRYMAN AND C. TURON. F. NAKANO, SUMOTO, JAPAN, HAS COMPUTED IMPROVED ORBITS AND THE FOLLOWING TIMES (CORRECTED FOR LIGHT TIME) FOR THE IMPACTS ON JUPITER: A = 21, JULY 16.826 UT; B = 20, 17.113; C = 19, 17.287; D = 18, 17.483; E = 17, 17.625; F = 16, 18.014; G = 15, 18.308; H = 14, 18.805; K = 12, 19.425; L = 11, 19.919; N = 9, 20.428; P = 8 (= P2 = 8B), 20.624; Q = 7 (= Q1 = 7A), 20.831; R = 6, 21.223; S = 5, 21.627; T = 4, 21.758; U = 3, 21.907; V = 2, 22.166; W = 1, 22.330. COMPARISON WITH COMPUTATIONS BY P. W. CHODAS AND D. K. YEOMANS, JET PROPULSION LABORATORY, SUGGESTS THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS NOW AROUND +/- 0.005 DAY FOR ALMOST ALL THESE NUCLEI, THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY BEING MAINLY BECAUSE MOST OF THE EARLIER OBSERVATIONS WERE REDUCED USING THE STSCI GUIDE STAR CATALOGUE. USING THE TIDAL-DISRUPTION MODEL OF Z. SEKANINA, CHODAS AND YEOMANS PROVIDE LESS CERTAIN IMPACT TIMES FOR LOST AND LESS WELL OBSERVED FRAGMENTS: J = 13, JULY 19.11 UT; M = 10, 20.24; P1 = 8A, 20.69; Q2 = 7B, 20.81. THEY ADD THAT A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF PARTICLES BEYOND THE EASTERN END OF THE NUCLEAR TRAIN SHOULD NOW ALREADY HAVE BEGUN TO STRIKE JUPITER. 1994 JULY 9 (6017) BRIAN G. MARSDEN CENTRAL BUREAU FOR ASTRONOMICAL TELEGRAMS INTERNATIONAL ASTRONOMICAL UNION POSTAL ADDRESS: CENTRAL BUREAU FOR ASTRONOMICAL TELEGRAMS SMITHSONIAN ASTROPHYSICAL OBSERVATORY, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138, U.S.A. TELEPHONE 617-495-7244/7440/7444 (FOR EMERGENCY USE ONLY) TWX 710-320-6842 ASTROGRAM CAM EASYLINK 62794505 MARSDEN@CFA OR GREEN@CFA (.SPAN, .BITNET OR .HARVARD.EDU) SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was at low levels. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be at generally very low levels, with an occasional C flare. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled, with periods of active levels at low to mid latitudes. Mostly active levels with periods of minor storms are expected at high latitudes. Event probabilities 15 jul-17 jul Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 jul-17 jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 60/60/30 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 65/60/30 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions. High latitude sites began to report increased signal instability as the day progressed, coinciding with periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity and high-latitude substorming. Similar near-normal conditions are expected for the low and middle latitudes. High latitudes should see below-normal conditions with periods of poor propagation, particularly on transauroral night-sector circuits. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z JULY ------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7746 N11W83 156 0040 HSX 01 001 ALPHA 7747 S14W69 142 0020 BXO 03 003 BETA 7749 S08W94 167 0010 AXX 01 001 ALPHA 7751 S14W00 073 0010 BXO 03 003 BETA 7753 S12E26 047 0020 CRO 04 006 BETA 7754 N11W07 080 0010 BXO 03 003 BETA 7755 N07W42 115 0010 BXO 03 003 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 JULY TO 17 JULY NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 JULY, 1994 --------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 1707 1708 1709 100 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 JULY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 92 N02E34 S08W03 N12W41 N25W11 089 ISO POS 014 10830A 93 N54E59 N40E09 N50W21 N60E49 054 EXT POS 018 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 13 Jul: 0016 0021 0024 B1.2 SF 7753 S12E50 0050 0101 0107 B2.1 0202 0205 0207 B1.2 SF 7747 S13W49 0731 0735 0737 B1.1 1138 1144 1150 B3.2 SF 7746 N10W66 1555 1603 1608 B2.3 1647 1722 1732 B4.4 SF 7746 N12W69 2042 2050 2054 B1.7 SF 7749 S10W82 2146 2157 2230 B3.0 SF 7751 S12E18 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7746: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (22.2) Region 7747: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (11.1) Region 7749: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (11.1) Region 7751: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (11.1) Region 7753: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (11.1) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 003 (33.3) Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 13 Jul: 0016 0021 0024 B1.2 SF 7753 S12E50 III 0050 0101 0107 B2.1 V 1138 1144 1150 B3.2 SF 7746 N10W66 V 1555 1603 1608 B2.3 III,V 1647 1722 1732 B4.4 SF 7746 N12W69 V NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Jul 1994 21:18:44 MDT From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!swrinde!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!usenet@network.ucsd.edu Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 July To: info-hams@ucsd.edu /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 15 JULY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 JULY, 1994 -------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 196, 07/15/94 10.7 FLUX=083 90-AVG=080 SSN=059 BKI=4332 2224 BAI=014 BGND-XRAY=B1.2 FLU1=9.5E+05 FLU10=1.4E+04 PKI=4332 3334 PAI=017 BOU-DEV=045,021,021,***,017,018,017,050 DEV-AVG=027 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C1.1 @ 0733UT XRAY-MIN= A8.5 @ 0137UT XRAY-AVG= B2.0 NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 2220UT NEUTN-MIN= -004% @ 0920UT NEUTN-AVG= -1.4% PCA-MAX= +0.5DB @ 1625UT PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 1925UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55267NT @ 0151UT BOUTF-MIN=55228NT @ 1749UT BOUTF-AVG=55244NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+079,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+157NT@ 2035UT GOES6-MIN=N:-066NT@ 0018UT G6-AVG=+107,+039,-023 FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,080;SESC:080,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,010 KFCST=3333 3333 3333 3333 27DAY-AP=015,024 27DAY-KP=3443 2322 2246 5333 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 JUL 94 was 45.0. The Full Kp Indices for 14 JUL 94 are: 1+ 1+ 2+ 4+ 5- 5- 4- 5o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 14 JUL 94 are: 5 5 10 34 42 40 22 45 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 15 JUL is: 2.0E+07 SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was at low levels. Region 7756 (S12E59) was assigned. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be generally at very low levels, with occasional C-class flares. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels, with possible local nightime sub-storming. Event probabilities 16 jul-18 jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 jul-18 jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor Storm 15/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions. A few brief periods of minor signal degradation may have been observed by a few high-latitude stations (on transauroral paths). Otherwise, near-normal conditions prevailed. Similar conditions are expected over the next 3 days, through 18 July. Conditions should begin gradually stabilizing on 18 July for transauroral paths. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z JULY ------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7751 S12W13 073 0010 BXO 04 003 BETA 7753 S13E13 047 0030 CRO 06 005 BETA 7754 N11W20 080 0020 BXO 03 007 BETA 7756 S12E59 001 0060 CRO 04 004 BETA 7755 N07W55 115 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 JULY TO 18 JULY NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 JULY, 1994 --------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 JULY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 15/ 1625 1636 1709 LDE B3.3 44 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 92 N06W19 S06W19 N08W51 N27W25 093 ISO POS 016 10830A 93 N67E51 N36W10 N46W17 N67E51 050 EXT POS 011 10830A 94 S33E66 S33E66 S30E36 S27E42 009 ISO NEG 003 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 14 Jul: 0428 0431 0433 B1.0 0844 0853 0859 C1.9 SF 7746 N10W78 1036 1042 1047 B2.1 1442 1449 1456 B1.6 1902 1903 1911 SF 7746 N12W84 1955 1959 2002 C2.3 SF S14E77 2351 2355 2359 B7.5 SF S14E73 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7746: 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (28.6) Uncorrellated: 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 005 (71.4) Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 14 Jul: 1955 1959 2002 C2.3 SF S14E77 III,V NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 17 Jul 1994 23:51:44 MDT From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!swrinde!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!usenet@network.ucsd.edu Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 July To: info-hams@ucsd.edu /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 17 JULY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 JULY, 1994 -------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Energetic electrons at greater than 2 MeV have become enhanced again. The fluence values are again at moderate levels. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 198, 07/17/94 10.7 FLUX=080.3 90-AVG=080 SSN=073 BKI=3433 2233 BAI=014 BGND-XRAY=A6.3 FLU1=2.2E+06 FLU10=3.8E+04 PKI=4434 3233 PAI=017 BOU-DEV=033,040,027,023,016,017,033,030 DEV-AVG=027 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B1.8 @ 0059UT XRAY-MIN= A4.7 @ 2214UT XRAY-AVG= A7.9 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2240UT NEUTN-MIN= -004% @ 0855UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.6% PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1920UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1835UT PCA-AVG= +0.1DB BOUTF-MAX=55259NT @ 2211UT BOUTF-MIN=55224NT @ 1927UT BOUTF-AVG=55239NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+132NT@ 1919UT GOES6-MIN=N:-048NT@ 2358UT G6-AVG=+104,+037,-023 FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,080;SESC:080,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,005/015,010,010 KFCST=3333 3333 2233 3222 27DAY-AP=011,010 27DAY-KP=3322 3333 2333 3222 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 JUL 94 was 30.0. The Full Kp Indices for 16 JUL 94 are: 5o 4o 3- 5o 4- 3o 3+ 3+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 16 JUL 94 are: 49 28 12 49 23 15 18 19 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 17 JUL is: 7.9E+08 SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was at very low levels. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels. Event probabilities 18 jul-20 jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 jul-20 jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were below-normal on transpolar and transauroral paths. Polar and high latitude substorming resulted in periods of moderate multipathing and associated fading. However, conditions have begun improving and are expected to continue improving to near-normal values on about 19 July. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z JULY ------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7751 S12W41 074 0010 AXX 01 001 ALPHA 7753 S12W16 049 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7754 N12W47 080 0010 BXO 04 005 BETA 7756 S12E33 000 0040 BXO 06 012 BETA 7757 N13E62 331 0160 DAO 07 004 BETA 7755 N07W81 114 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 JULY TO 20 JULY NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 JULY, 1994 --------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0425 0425 0425 210 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 JULY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 16 Jul: 0012 0023 0026 B8.1 0114 0117 0119 B5.4 0126 0152 0206 B8.3 0251 0304 0313 C1.4 0546 0551 0555 B6.1 0737 0740 0743 B4.0 0749 0758 0805 B4.2 0843 0850 0902 B6.9 SF 7756 S16E53 0916 0920 0922 B5.5 1143 1148 1206 B1.6 1235 1256 1304 B2.0 1342 1346 1350 B3.0 SF N11E81 1629 1630 1632 SF 7757 N12E73 1950 2011 2020 B3.7 2250 2257 2304 B2.6 2324 2327 2330 B1.6 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7756: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 6.2) Region 7757: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 6.2) Uncorrellated: 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 014 (87.5) Total Events: 016 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** ------------------------------ End of Info-Hams Digest V94 #815 ******************************